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As of 01.11.2022

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General information

The importance of the understanding of the recent and past changes in the ozone layer and the climate, and the forecasting of future changes, especially in the Russian Arctic and sub-Arctic, has important ecological, social, and economic implications and is recognised at the level of the government. The relevance of the problem is escalated by the absence of substantial proof of recovery of the ozone layer, the emergence of a massive ozone hole over the Arctic in the spring of 2020 and the formation of ozone mini-holes. Ozone layer research requires a consideration of the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors acting in the atmosphere from the surface of the Earth up to the near-Earth space.  

Name of the project: The forecasting of the state of the ozone layer by means of modelling and measurement of the composition of the atmosphere

Goals and objectives

The objective of the project is to solve scientific and educational problems related to middle-term (up to a month) and long-term (up to 200 years) forecasting of the development of the ozone layer caused by natural and anthropogenic factors, climate change and the state of space weather. The main goals of the research are:

  1. The implementation and analysis of ground and satellite measurements of ozone, ozone-destroying substances (ODS) and the state of the atmosphere.
  2. The assessment of the past and the forecasting of the future behaviour of the ozone layer using modern models of photochemistry and the climate with consideration to various impacts, including the variability of greenhouse gases and ODS.
  3. The development of the new atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere model and its application to the study of the impact of space weather on the variability of the ozone layer.
  4. The analysis of the middle-term variability of the ozone layer caused by perturbations of the atmospheric dynamics and space weather.

The practical value of the study

Scientific results:

  • The Laboratory has collected new data from ground and satellite measurements of ozone and some ozone-destroying substances. We modernized computational modules and validated the used models of the climate and the gas composition of the atmosphere with the use of satellite data and the available results of a meteorological reanalysis. Theoretical foundations have been developed for uniting models of the atmosphere and the magnetosphere. New databases were produced for analyzing atmospheric processes. These databases can be used by Russian researchers. New algorithms were created to parametrize the thermal and dynamic impact of acoustic gravity waves (AGWs) or orographic gravity wave (OGWs) in climate models. A new model was developed to describe the propagation of arbitrary initial perturbations in a semi-infinite non-isothermal atmosphere for a system of linearized hydrodynamic equations for low-amplitude waves. It has been demonstrated that the frequencies of the waves, which are reviewed as eigenvalues of the self-adjoint evolution operator, are real and form two global branches corresponding to high-frequency and low-frequency AGW mode. These two branches are separated since the Brunt–Väisälä frequency is lower than the acoustic cut off frequency on the upper boundary of the model. Wave modes belonging to the low-frequency global spectral branch possess the properties of internal gravity waves (IGWs) at all altitudes. Wave modes of the high-frequency spectral branch at various altitudes can possess properties of IGWs or acoustic waves depending on the local stratification. The results of the modeling with the use of the new model confirmed the possibility of changing the properties of AGWs at various altitudes in a non-isothermic atmosphere.       
  • We are conducting regular field measurements of Solar radiation spectra in the UV, visible, near and mid IR regions of the spectrum. To conduct those measurements, we repaired existing electronics devices and created new ones for the Bruker Fourier interferometer. We interpreted the field measurements of the spectra of direct and scattered Solar radiation in the UV, visible, near and mid IR regions of the spectrum to accumulate new data on the content of ozone and ozone-destroying substances. We have developed and modernized methodologies and algorithms for monitoring ozone and ozone-destroying gases in the atmosphere using Russian satellites. To automatically determine the dates of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), we have developed and applied algorithms for determining moments of the maximum rate of increase of temperature and meridional heat flow as well as the maximum rate of decrease of zonal wind at altitudes between 30 and 40 km. We have conducted computations of SSWs and the characteristics of the activity of planetary waves (PWs) during these events using the database of reanalysis of meteorological information JRA-55 for the period from 1958 to 2020.
  • The Laboratory has created renewed versions of the chemical climate models created by the Institute of Computational Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ICM RAS) and Russian State Hydrometeorological University with a dynamic nucleus in accordance with the latest version of the SOCOLv4 model and ICM RAS with an interactive ocean. We have created scenarios of future change (2020–2100) of natural and anthropogenic factors affecting ozone for computing future climate variability and the ozone content in various scenarios of future development. The prepared scenarios have been used for computing changes of the ozone layer and the climate in the future. We confirmed the positive influence of the limitations on the production of halogen-containing gases introduced by the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the future of the ozone layer and the climate.         
  • We are installing and launching a numerical model, the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) on SPbSU servers. We are uniting the magnetosphere and the ionosphere blocks by passing the results of our computations of the magnetosphere block as input parameters used in the ionosphere module of GSM TIP. The positions of the polar caps were added to the parameters of the GAMERA model that were passed earlier (characteristics of precipitation and lateral currents). This parameter has been used in a block for computing the ionospheric potential of the GIS TIP model to determine open and closed magnetic field lines. Joint computations using the GAMERA and GSM TIP models to compare the main characteristics of magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions.

Education and retraining of personnel:

  • One Doctor of Sciences and two Candidate of Sciences dissertations have been prepared and defended.
  • In 2021, two employees of the Laboratory completed an internship at the leading scientist's main place of work at the Physical Meteorological Observatory in Davos (Switzerland).
  • An additional training program has been developed entitled «Space weather: impact on the atmosphere and the climate».
  • We organized and staged two section within the 14th school and conference with international participation «Problems of Geocosmos-2022» (4-6 October 2022, Section: «STP. Solar-terrestrial physics», Section «OLD. Ozone layer dynamics»).

Other results:

In 2022, the members of the academic team of the Laboratory participated in the implementation of a project supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project number 22-62-00048, topic: «Flows of energetic electrons of the radiation belt in high-latitude magnetosphere and their impact on the state of the upper and middle atmosphere»).

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gavrilov, n.m., kshevetskii, s.p., koval, a.v.
Decay times of atmospheric acoustic–gravity waves after deactivation of wave forcing. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics., 2022, October, Volume 22.
mironova, i.; sinnhuber, m.; bazilevskaya, g.; clilverd, m.; funke, b.; makhmutov, v.; rozanov, e.; l. santee, m.; sukhodolov, t.; ulich, t.
Exceptional middle latitude electron precipitation detected by balloon observations: implications for atmospheric composition. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics., 2022, May, Volume 22.
pikulina, p.; mironova, i.; rozanov, e.; karagodin, a.
September 2017 Solar Flares Effect on the Middle Atmosphere. Remote Sensing., 2022, May, Volume 14.
koval, a.v., gavrilov, n.m., pogoreltsev, a.i., kandieva, k.k.
Dynamical impacts of stratospheric QBO on the global circulation up to the lower thermosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres., 2022, February, Volume 127, Issue 4.
karpachev, a., m. klimenko, v. klimenko, n. chirik, g. zhbankov, l. pustovalova
Satellite model of foF2 in winter high-latitude ionosphere describing the trough structure, Advances in Space Research., 2022, January, Volume 69, Issue 1.
sinnhuber, m., nesse tyssøy, h., asikainen, t., bender, s., funke, b., hendrickx, k., et al.
Heppa III intercomparison experiment on electron precipitation impacts: 2. Model-measurement intercomparison of nitric oxide (NO) during a geomagnetic storm in April 2010. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Phys., 2021, December, Volume 127, Issue 1. (2022)
brodowsky, c., sukhodolov, t., feinberg, a., höpfner, m., peter, t., stenke, a., and rozanov, e.
Modeling the sulfate aerosol evolution after recent moderate volcanic activity, 2008–2012. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres., 2021, November, Volume 126, Issue 23.
mironova, i., g. kovaltsov, a. mishev, and, a. artamonov
Ionization in the Earth’s Atmosphere Due to Isotropic Energetic Electron Precipitation: Ion Production and Primary Electron Spectra. Remote Sens, 2021, October, Volume 13.
sukhodolov, t., egorova, t., stenke, a., ball, w. t., brodowsky, c., chiodo, g., feinberg, a., friedel, m., karagodin-doyennel, a., peter, t., sedlacek., j., vattioni, s., and rozanov, e.
Atmosphere-Ocean-Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Model SOCOLv4.0: description and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 2021, September, Volume 14.
nerobelov, g.,timofeyev, y., virolainen, y., polyakov, a., solomatnikova, a., poberovskii, a., kirner, o., al-subari, o., smyshlyaev, s., rozanov, e.
Measurements and Modelling of Total Ozone Columns near St. Petersburg, Russia. Remote Sens., 2022, August, Volume 14.
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