Laboratory for Climate Predictability

Scientific results:

The main scientific achievement of the project is the first comprehensive assessment of the theoretical potential and practically realizable predictability of climatic and extreme hydrometeorological events in Northern Eurasia on weekly to centennial timescales. The following main results were obtained:

1. Quantitative assessment of the contribution of the fast (atmospheric) component and the slow (climatic) component to climate variability on the specified time scales.
2. Quantitative assessment of the predictability of slow and fast components at various time scales (from 2 weeks to decades) based on observational data and models, including an assessment of the main limitations of existing climate models and the development of new approaches to reconfiguring/modifying forecast data to improve their accuracy and reliability.
3. Quantitative assessment of the contribution of external radiation exposure and internal climate variability to the dynamics of both fast (atmospheric) and slow (climatic) components for the current historical period and the coming century, including the assessment of uncertainty in modeling results and the development of methods to reduce this uncertainty.
4. Quantitative assessment of the existing potential for forecasting extreme hydrometeorological events in Northern Eurasia on a sub-seasonal time scale and assessment of the impact of climate change on the characteristics of extreme events with scenario forecasts of such changes in the 21st century.

Implementation of research results:

The key practical result is the creation of tools for reconfiguring forecasts and improved projections of climate and extreme hydrometeorological events in Northern Eurasia, which will serve as the basis for the applied tasks of the The Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and will allow developing better climate services for the sustainable development of society and the economy of the Russian regions.

Education and personnel occupational retraining:

1 doctoral and 5 PhD dissertations have been submitted and defended. 5 grant participants enrolled in graduate school. Young laboratory staff were trained at the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences and at the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Cooperation:

• Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
• Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
• Lomonosov Moscow State University,
• The Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia,
• National Research University Higher School of Economics,
• Bauman Moscow State Technical University.